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关于新型冠状病毒感染人数的预测研究

MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING OF THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS PNEUMONIA (NCP)

摘要: 2019年12月,新型冠状病毒肺炎(NCP,又称2019-nCoV)疫情从武汉开始爆发,几天内迅速传播到全国乃至海外,对我国的工农业生产和人民生活产生了重要影响。科学有效掌控疫情发展对疫情防控至关重要。本文基于中国卫健委及湖北省卫健委每日公布的累计确诊数,采用逻辑斯蒂模型对数据进行了拟合,以期给该疾病的防控治提供科学依据。通过公布的疫情数据,我们反演了模型的参数,进而有效地模拟了目前疫情的发展,并预测了疫情未来的趋势。我们预测,湖北省疫情还要持续至少2周,而在全国其他地区,疫情可望1周左右达到顶峰。

英文摘要: " " "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP, or alternatively 2019-nCoV), initially blown up in Wuhan in December of 2019, has been quickly spread all over China, and even other countries of the world, which has produced an important effect to the agricultural and industrial activities, and daily life. It is expected that a well-known recognition is essential to the effective prevention of the disease. Based on the daily announced numbers of the infective people from the National and Hubei provincial Health commissions, a logistic model is applied in this paper for data fitting, in order to provide some scientific information for the effective prevention and controlling of the disease. Using the parameters obtained from the data simulation, a susceptible-infected (SI) model is used to forecast the future trend of the NCP. Our work indicated that the epidemic will last at least two additional weeks in Hubei, but should come to an apex in one week in other areas of China. "

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[V2] 2020-02-18 17:45:10 chinaXiv:202002.00021V2 下载全文
[V1] 2020-02-18 10:15:05 chinaXiv:202002.00021v1 查看此版本 下载全文
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