MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING OF THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS PNEUMONIA (NCP)

Subjects: Mathematics >> Mathematics （General） submitted time 2020-02-18

吴宇宸

Abstract： " " "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (NCP, or alternatively 2019-nCoV), initially blown up in Wuhan in December of 2019, has been quickly spread all over China, and even other countries of the world, which has produced an important effect to the agricultural and industrial activities, and daily life. It is expected that a well-known recognition is essential to the effective prevention of the disease. Based on the daily announced numbers of the infective people from the National and Hubei provincial Health commissions, a logistic model is applied in this paper for data fitting, in order to provide some scientific information for the effective prevention and controlling of the disease. Using the parameters obtained from the data simulation, a susceptible-infected (SI) model is used to forecast the future trend of the NCP. Our work indicated that the epidemic will last at least two additional weeks in Hubei, but should come to an apex in one week in other areas of China. "

Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review

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