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新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的动力学分析和预测

摘要:基于经典动力学模型和模型参数自动优化算法, 本文分析了全国当前累计确诊感染病例数大于100(截止到2020年2月16日)的24个省市自治区, 以及湖北省除神农架以外的16个地市从2020年1月20日至2月16日的累计确诊病例数, 并对相应省市地区疫情可能的结束时间和总感染人数的进行了长期预测. 我们的研究表明, 在目前严防严控措施下, 全国大部分省市的疫情将于2月底前基本结束, 而湖北省内疫情也有望于3月中旬结束, 但是武汉市的疫情可能要持续到4月初. 通过对比公开数据与预测值, 我们建议加强对黑龙江、河北、江西、安徽、贵州和四川六省, 以及湖北省内武汉、荆州、鄂州、随州、天门和恩施六个地市的的监控, 以防疫情死灰复燃. 此外, 分析结果提示, 在疫情发展前期, 天津、河北、重庆、四川、海南和广西等省, 以及湖北省下辖多个地市可能存在着聚集性感染, 这有待于疫后进一步的流行病学调查确认.

英文摘要:Here we report the analysis of epidemic data from Jan. 20th to Feb. 16th, 2020 in 24 provinces in China, whose total infected cases are larger than 100 till 02/16/2020, as well as 16 cities in Hubei province (the most severely affected area) except Shennongjia, based on dynamical models and automatical algorithms for parameter optimization. We forecast the COVID-19 epidemics in most provinces in China will end up soon before February 29th, while those for Hubei province (except Wuhan city) will be closed by the middle of March. The epidemic in Wuhan will continue to the beginning of April. And we suggest further close attentions should be paid to six provides, including Heilongjiang, Hebei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guizhou and Sichuan, as well as six different cities, including Wuhan, Jingzhou, Ezhou, Suizhou, Tianmen and Enshi, in Hubei province. Moreover, it is hinted that clustering infection might be happened in Tianjin, Hebei, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hainan and Guangxi provides, and many cities inside Hubei province during the spreading of COVID-19, which needs further validation by epidemiological investigations in the future.

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[V1] 2020-02-25 13:03:07 chinaXiv:202002.00066V1 下载全文
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